Wales National Trends and Glastir Evaluation

This ERAMMP report is an independent evaluation of the current national trends of Wales’ natural resources and the outcomes of the Glastir agri-environment scheme (AES). Wales is unique amongst the four UK Nations in having and maintaining a long-term, integrated national monitoring programme across its rural environment. The quality and breadth of the evidence base presented in the report is unmatched. The design of the programme enables us to compare the results from the last 10 years with those from the historic Countryside Survey stretching back to the 1970’s. In addition, the same design and methodologies used for national trend reporting have been used for Glastir evaluation enabling the contribution of Glastir to be assessed both for land where management options were applied but also how they aggregate up to contribute to the national trends reported. 

The results indicate that whilst we are no longer seeing widespread long-term declines, we do not see the transformational change required to meet WG environmental policies and objectives of the Glastir scheme.  Whilst there are a number of positive results recorded, there are also worrying signals there are new and persistent negative trends. Further analysis is needed to explore the reasons for this but the lack of adaptation in management practices in response to climate change and ongoing pollution is one possibility. 

This report would not have been possible without all the farmers who welcomed our survey teams onto their land, our stakeholder advisory group including the farming unions for their advice and support, and Welsh Government for their commitment to capturing robust scientific evidence to inform policy evaluation and development.

Landcover

• A 7% increase (+23,600ha) in woodland cover with Glastir funding the planting of approximately 3,780ha (+1%).
• A significant increase (+ 2,200km) in the length of hedgerows planted and restored with the majority funded by Glastir, and an improvement in condition.
• An increase in urban land cover of 28,200ha (+29%) which now represents 6% of Wales and a loss of 48,900ha (-4%) of Wales most productive improved land which now represents 44% of Wales. 

Decarbonisation of the agricultural sector

• No net change in livestock numbers and limited evidence of decarbonisation of the agricultural sector and of Glastir’s contribution. The limited contribution from Glastir is due primarily to a minimal change in livestock numbers and no change in fertiliser use. The 1% of new woodland and 2.7% of hedges Glastir supported across Wales will not be contributing carbon sequestration as yet but will in time.
• Only 31-34% of farmers changed their management in response to Glastir payments in part due to maintenance of practices supported by previous AES schemes.
• Significant investment has been made in peatland restoration through multiple funding mechanisms including legacy EU programmes, Welsh Government peatland policy and Glastir. In total 9,000ha of peatland has been restored, 11% of which was funded by Glastir.  Most restoration was on peatlands with relatively low greenhouse emission rates (i.e. bogs) suggesting most benefit will be for biodiversity. 

Biodiversity

• Declines in plant species richness (-8%), bird (-13 to 35%) and pollinator (- 23 to 75%) indicators across Wales. Land with Glastir management options slowed or halted the decline of plant species richness for Wales as a whole and bird indicators in arable, woodland, grassland and hedgerows.
• Increase in non-native and/or invasive species in vegetation. Most other vegetation indicators were stable.  

Soil health

• A 2 to 4 fold increase in the number of improved soils with nutrient levels above recommended levels risking leaching to water courses. 8% in arable and 17% of improved soils now exceed the recommended levels.
• Overall stability in soil carbon but with a loss of soil carbon concentrations in arable soils.
• A 6-32% increase in soil compaction reducing resilience to drought, increasing risk of both rapid runoff and nitrous oxide emissions – the latter a potent greenhouse gas.
• Glastir had few positive benefits for soil with a couple of exceptions including an increase in topsoil carbon concentrations in 3 of the 19 habitats.

Water

• 80% of headwater streams remain in good ecological condition but 66% now have invasive invertebrates.

• 46% of Ponds now in poor or very poor condition, an increase from 37%. 19% now have invasive species. 

Broad Habitats

• ERAMMP experts reviewed the evidence as a whole and concluded that 12 (63%) of habitats and landscape features were in a state of concern or had declined; 6 were stable (32%) and 1 (5%) had improved (Hedgerows) over the last 10 years.