Integrated Monitoring Platform (IMP)

Modelling effects of policy and management for farm viability 

The ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP) is a tool for rapid exploration of the effects of policy and management interventions on farm viability, land use and public goods in Wales.   

Taking an integrated approach, it recognises that policy effects in one sector have indirect effects in other sectors. It comprises a chain of specialised, state-of-the-art models covering agriculture, forestry, land use allocation decisions, water, air, soils, biodiversity, ecosystem services and valuation. These highly spatially resolved integrated models combine to create a tool to explore and stress-test policy and management interventions for the land use and environment of Wales under a range of future Welsh economic and climatic futures.  

Built for Welsh Government policy development, the IMP has been used to investigate the impacts of Brexit trade deals on the agricultural sector and other environment outcomes and is now under further construction for informing the development of the Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) agro-environmental payments. The SFS modelling will represent the mandatory (Tier 1) elements of the scheme to explore the effects of different payment levels for farm viability and environmental impact. All IMP outputs Aqua-books compliant and any assumptions used signed-off by Welsh Government.    

The IMP development is led by UKCEH in partnership with Cranfield University, Forest Research, ADAS, BTO and eftec.   

Aims of the IMP 

The primary aim of the IMP is to enable rapid assessment of natural resource policy options.   

Policy interventions (such as changes in agricultural subsidies) serve as inputs for the IMP, alongside various other environmental and socio-economic variables, with outputs being used to stress-test the environmental, agricultural and socio-economic impacts of these policy options.   

The rapid exploration of natural resource policy and land management under a range of future economic and climatic scenarios are aligned where possible to the Welsh Government public goods and sustainable land management (SLM) outcomes, including:  

• Air quality  

• Public health  

• Greenhouse gas balance  

• Biodiversity  

• High water quality  

• Productivity  

• Conservation of heritage  

• Improvement of the natural landscape  

• Social outcomes (e.g. public access, outdoor recreation). 

Key features of the IMP 

The IMP works at sub-farm, farm and catchment resolution depending on the public good, using a modular chain of linked specialised, state-of-the-art models that explicitly account for biophysical and socio-economic interactions between sectors.   

Drawing on expert judgement from Welsh Government policy in developing plausible economic scenarios (including EU exit scenarios) and integrates downscaled UKCP18 climate scenarios, integrated modelling responds to economic and climatic drivers for land use change, rather than change being a pre-specified input. This integrated modelling approach recognises that policy effects in one sector have indirect effects in other sectors.   

It will be presented through a dynamic user-friendly interface allowing linked chain of models to be run by non-experts and experts to explore multiple combinations of scenarios and policy options to assess resilience.   

Outputs cover forestry, agriculture, land use allocation decisions, water, air, soils, biodiversity, landscape services and economic valuation (where appropriate/feasible), and can be used to assess environmental, agricultural and socio-economic impacts of policy options against Welsh Government legislative objectives. All model outputs are sensitised as not to violate personal data protection. 

Alignment of the IMP to Policy Objectives

The main aim of the IMP is to inform policy development by providing rapid, integrated assessments of the impacts of changing policy or economic scenarios on agriculture and the environment. The IMP has been used to investigate the impacts of post EU Exit trade deals on land use, agriculture and public goods/ecosystem services. It is being further adapted to directly support the development of the Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS); Welsh Government’s replacement to the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy.

Policy interventions (such as changes in agricultural subsidies and scheme payments) and external drivers (such as changes in commodity prices due to new trading relationships) serve as inputs for the IMP, alongside other environmental and socio-economic variables.

Application of multiple scenarios (consisting of consistent changes in a range of inputs) enable rapid exploration of their impacts on agricultural, socio-economic, and public goods/ecosystem service outcomes.

Where possible, the integrated and rapid exploration of natural resource policy and land management under a range of future scenarios are aligned to Welsh Government policy objectives including:

IMP Outputs

The IMP enables integrated rapid assessment of natural resource policy options. The model assesses changes in:

• Farm type and profitability
• Agricultural income
• Agricultural production
• Land use and livestock numbers
• Suitability of species populations for plants and birds
• Woodland habitat connectivity
• Woodland productivity and harvested wood products
• Carbon in soils, vegetation and biomass
• GHG emissions from land use, land use change and forestry, agriculture and peat
• Water quality (nitrate, phosphorus and sediment load)
• Water framework Directive P status and drinking water N status
• Air quality (PM2.5 concentration and effects on human health)
• Values across a range of public goods / ecosystem services over 5, 25 and 75 years